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R esearch
(Published online:
07-07-2015)
2.
Modeling of spatial distribution for
scorpions of medical importance in the São Paulo State, Brazil
- José Brites-Neto and Keila Maria Roncato Duarte
Veterinary World, 8(7): 823-830
doi:
10.14202/vetworld.2015.823-830
José
Brites-Neto:
Epidemiological Surveillance Department, Secretariat of Health,
Americana, São Paulo, Brazil;
samevet@yahoo.com
Keila
Maria Roncato Duarte: Department of Genetics and Animal
Reproduction, Institute of Animal Science, Nova Odessa, São Paulo,
Brazil;
keiladuarte@globo.com
Received:
12-03-2015, Revised: 01-06-2015, Accepted: 10-06-2015, Published
online: 07-07-2015
Corresponding author:
José Brites-Neto, e-mail: samevet@yahoo.com.br
Citation:
Brites-Neto J, Duarte
KMR (2015) Modeling of spatial distribution for scorpions of
medical importance in the São Paulo State, Brazil, Veterinary
World 8(7): 823-830.
Abstract
Aim:
In this work, we aimed to develop maps of modeling geographic
distribution correlating to environmental suitability for the two
species of scorpions of medical importance at São Paulo State and
to develop spatial configuration parameters for epidemiological
surveillance of these species of venomous animals.
Materials and Methods: In this study, 54 georeferenced points
for Tityus serrulatus and 86 points for Tityus bahiensis
and eight environmental indicators, were used to generate
species distribution models in Maxent (maximum entropy modeling of
species geographic distributions) version 3.3.3k using 70% of data
for training (n=38 to T. serrulatus and n=60 to T.
bahiensis) and 30% to test the models (n=16 for T.
serrulatus and n=26 for T. bahiensis). The
logistic threshold used to cut models in converting the continuous
probability model into a binary model was the “maximum test
sensitivity plus specificity,” provided by Maxent, with results of
0.4143 to T. serrulatus and of 0.3401 to T.
bahiensis. The models were evaluated by the area under the
curve (AUC), using the omission error and the binomial
probability. With the data generated by Maxent, distribution maps
were produced using the “ESRI ® ArcGIS 10.2.2
for Desktop” software.
Results: The models had high predictive success (AUC=0.7698±0.0533,
omission error=0.2467 and p<0.001 for T. serrulatus
and AUC=0.8205±0.0390, omission error=0.1917 and p<0.001 for T.
bahiensis) and the resultant maps showed a high
environmental suitability in the north, central, and southeast of
the state, confirming the increasing spread of these species. The
environmental variables that mostly contributed to the scorpions
species distribution model were rain precipitation (28.9%) and
tree cover (28.2%) for the T. serrulatus and
temperature (45.8%) and thermal amplitude (12.6%) for the T.
bahiensis.
Conclusion: The distribution model of these species of medical
importance scorpions in São Paulo State revealed a higher
environmental suitability of these species in the regions north,
central, and southeast of the state, warning to emergencies
actions for prevention and surveillance from scorpion stings in
several counties. There is also a need to best conservation
strategies related to neighboring territories, with the
implementation of new environmental protected areas and measures
of spread control of these species in urban areas of several
counties.
Keywords: binomial probability,
environmental variable, georeferencing, maxent, Tityus
bahiensis, Tityus serrulatus.
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