Vet World Vol.11 May-2018 Article-7
Research Article
Veterinary World, 11(5): 612-619
https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2018.612-619
Assessment of the peste des petits ruminants world epizootic situation and estimate its spreading to Russia
2. Department of Food Technology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University, Saratov, Russia.
3. Department of Epidemiology and Risk Assessment , Saratov Research Veterinary Institute - Branch of Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology, Saratov, Russia.
Background and Aim: This study focuses on the spatial dynamic associated with the spreading of the peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease for the past decade (from the year 2007 to 2017), assesses the resulting situation in the world, and has an emphasis on Russian advantages been a PPR host.
Materials and Methods: Outbreaks were confirmed and reported officially by the World Organization for Animal Health (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and polymerase chain reaction were used). Data contain the account number of infected, dead, and all susceptible animals in focus of infection in the period of 2007-2017. Once conventional statistical population was defined, a model was installed. Geo-information system QuickMAP was used to clear up the map disease, and through the @Risk program, we got our forecasting value of future situations (by Monte Carlo method).
Results: The spatial study of PPR's occurrence and its spread was mapping according to the incidence of cases and outbreaks. Clusters demonstrated risk levels in the world in the period from 2007 to 2017 year. Based on the epizootological analysis, an assessment of PPR risk and the probability movement of infection in Russia from nearby disadvantaged countries had been carried out. A statistically significant impact of the socioeconomic system on the stationarity index was found equal to 0.63. The PPR risk of spreading could not be ignored. Nevertheless, conducting effective large-scale vaccine companies in a complex of antiepizootic activities against PPR could reduce the risk of spread of the disease up to 91.8%.
Conclusion: Despite all mentioned facts above, the PPR probability can only be reduced by coordinating work of border veterinary services, as in disadvantaged as in free from this disease country, that is, what makes an effective and complete eradication of the disease could be quite realistic. Keywords: forecast, incidence, outbreaks, peste des petit ruminants, risk factors.
Keywords: forecast, incidence, outbreaks, peste des petit ruminants, risk factors.
How to cite this article: Bouchemla F, Agoltsov VA, Popova OM, Padilo LP (2018) Assessment of the peste des petits ruminants world epizootic situation and estimate its spreading to Russia, Veterinary World, 11(5): 612-619.
Received: 27-12-2017 Accepted: 09-04-2018 Published online: 13-05-2018
Corresponding author: Fayssal Bouchemla E-mail: faysselj18@yahoo.com
DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2018.612-619
Copyright: Bouchemla, et al. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http:// creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.