Vet World Vol.17 March Article - 15
Research Article
Veterinary World, 17(3): 630-644
https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2024.630-644
Analysis of environmental factors influencing lumpy skin disease outbreak seasonality and assessment of its spread risk in the Saratovskaya oblast of Russia
1 Scientific Research Institute of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry Technologies and Biotechnology LLC, Saratov, Russia.
2 Department of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Saratov State University of Genetics, Biotechnology and Engineering Named after N.I. Vavilov, Saratov, Russia.
3 Department of Microbiology and Animal Virology, Kuban State Agrarian University Named after I.T. Trubulin, Krasnodar, Russia.
4 Department of Animal Management and Veterinary- Sanitary Expertise, Kabardino-Balkaria State Agrarian University Named after V.M. Kokov, Nalchik, Russia.
Background and Aim: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary viral disease of cattle that causes serious economic losses due to a significant decrease in meat and milk productivity. This study analyzed the influence of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors on LSD spread seasonality and assessed the risk of LSD outbreaks in the Saratovskaya oblast of the Russian Federation.
Materials and Methods: Data on LSD outbreaks and environmental factors during different seasons were collected for the period 2011-2020 in the Balkan Peninsula, Middle East, and Russia. Risk assessment was performed using mathematical modeling with generalized linear regression and maximum entropy.
Results: Fourteen statistically significant environmental factors influencing LSD spread were identified. The analysis of MaxEnt models built using the selected factors showed that the presence of the pathogen is mostly exerted by: the density of susceptible cattle (an increased risk is observed at a density above 10 and 20 heads/10 km2 in winter and autumn, with a permanent risk in spring and summer), the density of water bodies (the risk is increased at any density in winter and autumn, in the range of 13-23.5 m2/km2 in spring, in the ranges of 0-8 and over 14.5 m2/km2 in summer), and average monthly precipitation rate (the most risky are 105-185 mm/month in winter, 35 mm in spring, 15-105 mm in summer, and above 50 mm in autumn).
Conclusion: LSD tends to spread during the warm season. Compared with other test zones, the Saratovskaya oblast has a negligible risk of disease spread (in winter), low risk (in spring), or medium risk (in summer and autumn). The annual risk is low to medium.
Keywords: cattle, environmental factors, generalized linear regression, lumpy skin disease, maximum entropy, species distribution.
How to cite this article: Podshibyakin D, Padilo L, Agoltsov V, Chernykh O, Popova O, Kalabekov M, and Solotova N (2024) Analysis of environmental factors influencing lumpy skin disease outbreak seasonality and assessment of its spread risk in the Saratovskaya oblast of Russia, Veterinary World, 17(3): 630-644.
Received: 21-10-2023 Accepted: 15-02-2024 Published online: 21-03-2024
Corresponding author: E-mail:
DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2024.630-644
Copyright: Podshibyakin, et al. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http:// creativecommons.org/ publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
